Political Prop Bets pay Quarter-Mil on Trump Speech

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Online prop betting on Trump’s exaggerations costly for Bookmaker.

It would seem the public is getting wise to US President Trump’s wily ways. Since he’s taken office, it’s become resoundingly clear that he’ll say whatever it takes to promote his agenda, even if it means stretching the truth about statistics and other so-called facts. They’re getting so wise that 92% of the political prop bets on Trump’s recent televised address were placed on him telling ‘over‘ 3.5 lies during the speech.

In just 8 minutes, President Trump managed to nearly double the required number of lies to pay out on the over bet. According to online sports firm Bookmaker.eu, 92% of the punters who bought that line took the over, costing the company more than a quarter million dollars.

Online Prop Betting on Trump’s Exaggerations Pays Off

Bookmaker posted an over/under line on how many lies—“alternative facts”, some are calling them—President Trump would tell during his national address. Would it be over or under 3.5? Those taking the under got odds of +115, while the over was listed at -145.

At those prices, a $100 bet on the under would win $115, while a bet on the over would win $68.97. The odds formulators at Bookmaker thought it was a reasonable offer. The general public thought they were crazy, snatching up the over bets to the tune of more than $400k, effectively costing the sportsbook $276,424 in losses.

“We figured the president’s strategy going in would be a bit of fear mongering to create pressure on the Democrats to approve the funding of the wall,” John Lester, odds consultant for Bookmaker, told the media. He also pointed out that the president was constrained to a time limit of just 8 minutes; another factor they thought would keep the falsified comments to a minimum.

“With all the cable networks agreeing to air the speech, it came down to, ‘How many times is the president willing to exaggerate the truth to accomplish his agenda, when he knows the world will be scrutinizing his every word?’”

Apparently, a lot!

Trump Caught Telling 6 “Alternative Facts”

According to the Washington Post’s Fact Checker—the official arbiter of Bookmaker in determining the winners and losers of this political prop bet—a total of 6 corrections had to be made following Trump’s speech on Tuesday night.

The first came within the very first sentence out of Trump’s mouth, in which he declared there is a “security crisis at the southern border”. In reality, the number of people trying to illegally cross the border is at a 20-year low.

Other falsifications were mostly similar claims Trump has exaggerated in the past. They included statements that a border wall would reduce drug trafficking from Mexico (most drugs come through legal points of entry); where the money will come from to pay for the wall; and misleading statistics regarding the number of children brought into the US illegally.

It Could Have Been Worse…

When all was said and done, Lester quipped that online prop betting shouldn’t be so easy for punters, tossing the pie of blame at Trump. “Never has a president made winning so easy… 92 percent of the action favored the over, and the President did not disappoint the public.”

The saving grace for Bookmaker was its cap of $2,000 per wager. However, some of the brand’s more loyal, high-rolling VIPs were able to secure larger wagers. The odds consultant said the highest he knows of was a $25,000 bet on the over, worth over $17k to the winner.