No Amount of Knowledge and Skill can Predict Gambling Future

Gambling 101: Probabilities predict theoretical returns, not future results.

Gambling 101: Probabilities Predict Theoretical Returns, Not Future Results

Casino gambling can be a tumultuous thing. It comes with deep swings – ups and downs that can send our emotions soaring through the clouds one day, and our bankroll down into the doldrums the next. The transient nature of casino games is more volatile than most people realize, leading them to believe that with the right strategy, they can overcome the odds.

Therein lies one of the most common mistakes of novice gamblers – the belief that acquiring enough knowledge will give them the upper hand against the casino. Unfortunately for us players, it doesn’t work that way; at least, not anymore. And thanks to super intelligent computers that can crunch millions of numbers in under a second, it never will again.

Knowledge and skill are the experienced player’s friend. They can help the gambler to gain the best edge, but not a player’s edge. No matter how smart or mathematically inclined a person is, they cannot use that knowledge to predict the gambling future.

I know that a French Roulette wheel has two different levels of house edge. Even-money bets have a better payout rate than any other bets that pay 2-to-1 or more. I also know that those bets have a 1.35% house edge, which means players who make those bets should (collectively and over a long period of time) win back 98.65% of all those wagers.

Gambling Probabilities Predict Theoretical Returns

Gambling Probabilities Can't Predict Gambling Future

This knowledge of the game should provoke me to place only even money bets. Employing the skills that this knowledge has taught me, I will avoid the 2.7% house edge of all other bets and stick only to those that have the highest rate of return.

In this way, I am applying both knowledge and skill. But neither of these assets can predict the game’s future. I’ve gained no insight as to whether the next number will be black or red, odd or even, high or low. It is not going to help me predict future outcomes. The only thing my mental acuteness for French Roulette has given me is the keen ability to, on average, lose less money than an inexperienced player who wagers the full gambit of the roulette betting diagram.

Gambling’s Future Results are Unpredictable

Okay, you’re going to argue with me here. I know half the world predicted New England would win the Super Bowl over the Rams this year, and the other half doesn’t watch football. But it’s rare such simple bets come along. In a casino, they simply don’t exist.

None can predict with 100% assurance that will win the next slot machine pull, hit 3 of 3 keno numbers, or be dealt a blackjack. None can, with consistent accuracy, foretell when the craps shooter will crap out or the baccarat banker and player will tie. Were there any source of knowledge or superlative skill that gave players the ability to predict the gambling future, casinos would have been driven out of business long ago.

Play Smarter – Know The Difference

In gambling, the only realities are these:

  • Some players will win money
  • Some players will lose money
  • More players will lose than win.

Such is the ecosystem of casinos. Those who understand this – and use combined knowledge and skill to make smarter decisions – will not only have a higher chance of being among that first group of winners. They’ll also have the wisdom to bet responsibly and take their losses in stride.

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