Caribbean Stud Poker Stats & Logistics

Caribbean Stud Poker tips & logical lines of defense.

The fundamentals of gambling teach us that the rules of a game are imperative knowledge. Not knowing how to play will require far more luck than skill to win. Thus, the rules are the first thing any smart gambler will learn before attempting to place a wager on any new game. But those who are familiar with the stochastic nature of casino games will strive to attain a greater understanding of the logistics behind them.

If you count yourself among that group, you’ll enjoy today’s lesson in Caribbean Stud Poker statistics and probabilities. We’ll delve much deeper than the ordinary theoretical RTP to see just how likely you are to hit specific payouts when implementing a perfect strategy.

Caribbean Stud Poker Tips & Logistics

I’m going to assume that you already know the basics of how to play Caribbean Stud Poker. It’s a standard Ante/Play betting game with streets (revealing of cards) rather than a draw phase (no in-depth decision making). The only decisions to be made are how much to Ante, and whether to Play the hand with a continuation bet (Raise).

As for strategy, these five rules are all you really need to know.

Easy Perfect Caribbean Stud Poker Strategy

When you have any pair or better, Raise.
When your hand ranks below dealer’s qualifying hand (Ace+King high), Fold.
If you have exactly Ace+King High…
- Raise if the dealer’s upcard is 2-Queen, and matches one of your cards.
- Raise if the dealer’s upcard is King or Ace, and you have a Queen or Jack.
- Raise if the dealer’s upcard is lower than your four highest cards, and you have a Queen.

Caribbean Stud Poker Probabilities

Why do the above tactics work so well? Because the mathematical probabilities of the game state that following these rules will, in theory, diminish the casino’s house edge to the lowest possible risk factor.

By hypothetical standards, Caribbean Stud Poker has a 5.224% house edge (or 94.776% RTP). However, the edge is traditionally calculated as the expected loss on the original wager.

When following the above strategy, player’s will raise 52.23% of all hands, which comes to an average wager of 2.045 bet units per hand. And when raising, the player has a slightly higher probability of winning, or achieving a hand worth a high enough payout to be worth the calculated risk (hence the recommendation to raise in the first place). Therefore the element of risk falls to 2.555%.

With that said, let’s take a quick look at the…

Probabilities of All Possible Outcomes

Result of Hand	Ante Pays	Raise Pays	Probability %
Player wins w/ Royal Flush	1 unit	100 to 1	0.0001%
Player wins w/ Straight Flush	1 unit	50 to 1	0.0008%
Player wins w/ 4 of a Kind	1 unit	20 to 1	0.0142%
Player wins w/ Full House	1 unit	7 to 1	0.0834%
Player wins w/ Flush	1 unit	5 to 1	0.1097%
Player wins w/ Straight	1 unit	4 to 1	0.2198%
Player wins w/ 3 of a Kind	1 unit	3 to 1	1.1751%
Player wins w/ 2 Pair	1 unit	2 to 1	2.4482%
Player wins w/ Pair or Less	1 unit	1 to 1	11.7555%
Dealer doesn’t Qualify	1 unit	0	22.7385%
Push	0	0	0.0016%
Player Folds	-1 unit	0	47.7745
Dealer wins	-1 unit	-2 units	13.6786%